Drought, agricultural “diferimientos” and productive transformations in San Juan, Argentina (1988–2024)

Abstract

This article analyzes the relationship between agricultural diferimientos (tax deferral schemes), water dynamics, and changes in cultivated area in the province of San Juan (Argentina), based on the concept of a socio-hydrological regime. It examines the role of fiscal incentives established by Law 22,021/1979 in processes of expansion and productive concentration, as well as their development within a context of increasing water scarcity.

The methodology combines qualitative and quantitative strategies, including in-depth interviews and analysis of secondary sources (literature and official data). The period of analysis is delimited between 1988 and 2018 according to census data, and extends to 2024 for the study of water dynamics.

The results allow drought to be interpreted as a structural component of the provincial socio-hydrological regime. In this context, agricultural tax deferrals promoted processes of productive modernization and technological adoption, with unequal effects linked to differential access to policy benefits. A trend toward more individualized forms of water appropriation—particularly groundwater—is also observed, along with an increasing relative weight of large-scale farms.